Read the market
Cotton this month, the supplier’s currency, and what yarn is actually leaving each origin at.
Read these in this order
Each one links to the module that carries that number. The two readings under it are reference points, not thresholds, and under those are the outside places worth going to check the number at its source.
- The yarn benchmark
Where yarn sits against the fibre underneath it.
No action needed when yarn and fibre are moving together and the gap between them is stable.
Worth a second look when the gap narrows sharply. Mills cannot absorb fibre rises indefinitely, and a compressed spread is usually a price rise that has not been announced yet.
Learn further, at the source other people's sites, free unless marked paid
- UN Comtrade (opens in a new tab) official yarn export values and quantities by country, the free way to build your own per kilogram benchmark to set against the fibre
- YarnsandFibers (opens in a new tab) yarn and fibre price trends shown together, so the gap between them is visible without a subscription
- EmergingTextiles (opens in a new tab) paid paid, and the honest option when you need actual yarn price levels with history, which no free source publishes
- Producer prices for yarn
The US producer price indexes for cotton, synthetic and blended spun yarns, which show the direction of yarn prices independently of any one quotation.
No action needed when the indexes are drifting with the fibre they are made of.
Worth a second look when the yarn indexes turn while raw cotton does not. Something on the conversion side has changed, and it will reach your quotation before it reaches the news.
Learn further, at the source other people's sites, free unless marked paid
- US BLS producer price indexes (opens in a new tab) the source series itself, with cotton spun, synthetic spun and blended yarn indexes kept separate, free and needing no key
- The fibre underneath
The world cotton reference, because roughly half to two thirds of a cotton yarn price is the lint in it.
No action needed when the fibre is inside its recent range.
Worth a second look when a sharp fibre move in either direction. Down does not reach you as fast as up does, and knowing that is worth a phone call.
Learn further, at the source other people's sites, free unless marked paid
- ICE Cotton No. 2 futures (opens in a new tab) the reference the lint half of your yarn price moves against
- USDA cotton market news (opens in a new tab) the weekly physical spot average and adjusted world price, for the cash side of the same question
- World Bank Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet) (opens in a new tab) the monthly average, which is what you need to judge whether the fibre is inside its recent range or outside it
- What it costs to spin, by country
Power, wages, currency and duty by origin: the ingredients of the conversion cost you cannot see directly.
No action needed when the ranking of your origins against each other is where it was.
Worth a second look when a currency move or a power tariff change in your supplier’s country. Both hit conversion cost, and a devaluation can make a mill cheaper in dollars while nothing about the mill has changed.
Learn further, at the source other people's sites, free unless marked paid
- ILOSTAT (opens in a new tab) manufacturing earnings and minimum wages by country, the wage half of a conversion cost comparison, with the caution that these are national averages and not mill rates
- World Bank Indicators (opens in a new tab) power reliability, exchange rates and lending rates by country, the rest of the ingredients, each figure carrying its own year
- All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (opens in a new tab) the Pakistani mill sector's own reporting on energy tariffs and policy, which is where a conversion cost change shows up before it reaches your quotation
- US Harmonized Tariff Schedule (opens in a new tab) the duty your yarn actually carries by HS line, checked rather than assumed
- BGMEA export performance (opens in a new tab) what Bangladesh actually ships, by category and destination, which is the demand behind the largest single export market for Pakistani yarn
- Shipping and country costs
Container rates on the lanes we can read, and what they add per kilogram.
No action needed when rates are steady and the per kilogram addition is small against the yarn price.
Worth a second look when a rate spike, or the approach of the peak booking season. On a cheap coarse count freight can be a larger share of landed cost than any negotiation you will win on the yarn itself.
Learn further, at the source other people's sites, free unless marked paid
- Freightos Baltic Index (opens in a new tab) the daily global composite and twelve named lanes, free to read, so you can price the lane you actually ship on
- Drewry World Container Index (opens in a new tab) the weekly composite most contracts reference, with the headline figure free on the page
- Shanghai Shipping Exchange, SCFI and CCFI (opens in a new tab) the Asian export view of the same market, published openly in index points
- IMF PortWatch (opens in a new tab) whether Karachi and your discharge port are actually moving this week, which an index will not tell you
Reference points, not advice. They describe what the numbers have done, and they do not know your quality, your terms or what you have already covered.
Then decide, before you ask
Splitting the order is the most under used of these for yarn, because yarn is bought repeatedly rather than once. Covering half your quarter now and half in six weeks costs you the chance of being entirely right, and removes the chance of being entirely wrong.
- Cover now
- Fix the price for a stated quantity and period, accepting today’s number.
- Wait
- Leave the position open. Only sensible when you know what you are waiting for and by when.
- Split the order
- Cover part now and part later. The usual answer when the signals disagree, because it is the one that does not require you to be right.
- Change origin
- Buy the same thing from a different country. Turns a price question into a duty, freight, lead time and quality question.
- Change fibre or blend
- Move some of the cotton content to polyester or a cellulosic. Changes the product, so it is a decision for the customer as much as for procurement.
- Renegotiate
- Go back to the supplier with the movement in hand. What the data really buys you is the right to ask.
The data can tell you which of these is worth considering. It cannot tell you which to take, and this page never will.
Tools for this step
- Producer price indexes Excel
Months of American fibre and yarn producer price history, which is what you use to test a mill that says the market moved.
- Month of year pattern Excel
See whether the month you usually buy in has historically been dear or cheap, computed over ten complete years.
Every tool for this guide, grouped by what you are trying to do, is on the tools page.